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CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).

Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India.

by Priya Singh, Aditya Anand, Shweta Rana, Amit Kumar, Sujeet Kumar, Prabudh Goel, Krushna Chandra Gouda, Harpreet Singh

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread morbidity, mortality, and socio-economic disruptions worldwide. Vaccination has proven to be a crucial strategy in controlling the spread of the virus and mitigating its impact.

Objective: The study focuses on assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in reducing the incidence of positive cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. The presented study is focused on the COVID-19 fully vaccinated population by considering the data from the first positive case reported until 20 September 2021.

Methods: Using data from multiple countries, time series analysis is deployed to investigate the variations in the COVID-19 positivity rates, hospitalization rates, and ICU requirements after successful vaccination campaigns at the country scale.

Results: Analysis of the COVID-19 positivity rates revealed a substantial decline in countries with high pre-vaccination rates. Within 1–3 months of vaccination campaigns, these rates decreased by 20–44%. However, certain countries experienced an increase in positivity rates with the emergence of the new Delta variant, emphasizing the importance of ongoing monitoring and adaptable vaccination strategies. Similarly, the analysis of hospitalization rates demonstrated a steady decline as vaccination drive rates rose in various countries. Within 90 days of vaccination, several countries achieved hospitalization rates below 200 per million. However, a slight increase in hospitalizations was observed in some countries after 180 days of vaccination, underscoring the need for continued vigilance. Furthermore, the ICU patient rates decreased as vaccination rates increased across most countries. Within 120 days, several countries achieved an ICU patient rate of 20 per million, highlighting the effectiveness of vaccination in preventing severe cases requiring intensive care.

Conclusion: COVID-19 vaccination has proven to be very much effective in reducing the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. However, ongoing surveillance, variant monitoring, and adaptive vaccination strategies are crucial for maximizing the benefits of vaccination and effectively controlling the spread of the virus.

Source: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1272961 

Vision: 

To synergize the strong expertise in various disciplines across CSIR and build a unified platform that embodies a rich set of big data enabling technologies and services with optimized performance to facilitate research collaboration and scientific discovery. 

Mission:

Develop knowledge products in Earth, Engineering and information sciences for societal good by exploiting modeling, simulation and data science capabilities.

Mandate: 

To develop reliable knowledge products for decision support in Earth, Engineering and Information sciences as well as to host centralised supercomputing facility for CSIR. 

Student Programme for Advancement in Research Knowledge (SPARK)

SPARK is intended to provide a unique opportunity to bright and motivated students of reputed Universities to carry out their major project/thesis work and advance their research knowledge in mathematical modelling and simulation of complex systems. The programme is intended to increase the interaction between scientists and faculty members of academic institutes along with their students towards a long term research collaboration. Click here to apply for SPARK.

A FAQ on SPARK is available here.