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CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

(Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation)

A constituent laboratory of Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR).

Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India.

by Stella Jes Varghese, Sajani Surendran, Kavirajan Rajendran and Akio Kitoh

Abstract: Present-day simulations (1983–2003) of a global climate model of 60-km resolution with three deep convection schemes are analysed to find the best scheme for simulation of mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Multiforcing ensemble projections with the best scheme are carried out under multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (based on various socio-economic and technological development at the end of the century), viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, forced with four patterns of future sea surface temperature (SST) change for each scenario; one with mean SST changes projected by 28 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) models and the rest obtained from subgroups of CMIP5 models grouped through cluster analysis of tropical SST changes. These are analysed for future (2079–2099) changes in surface air temperature (Ts ) and rainfall which show overall increase over India except for rainfall reduction over Western Ghats. We find that combination of enhanced atmospheric water vapour content and increased vertically integrated low level moisture transport into the subcontinent as the major contributing factors for future intensification of ISMR. Extreme events show increase in warm days with significant increase in warm nights. Percentage of grid points showing increased extreme rainfall increases from low to high emission scenario. The high-resolution model enables to study projected changes over India at homogeneous zones level. The maximum increase in Ts  and rainfall occurs over Western Himalaya and Northeast hilly region respectively. Consistent with future increase in Ts  and rainfall, their extreme events also increase over all the homogeneous zones.

 

Source: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-019-05059-7 

Vision: 

To synergize the strong expertise in various disciplines across CSIR and build a unified platform that embodies a rich set of big data enabling technologies and services with optimized performance to facilitate research collaboration and scientific discovery. 

Mission:

Develop knowledge products in Earth, Engineering and information sciences for societal good by exploiting modeling, simulation and data science capabilities.

Mandate: 

To develop reliable knowledge products for decision support in Earth, Engineering and Information sciences as well as to host centralised supercomputing facility for CSIR. 

Student Programme for Advancement in Research Knowledge (SPARK)

SPARK is intended to provide a unique opportunity to bright and motivated students of reputed Universities to carry out their major project/thesis work and advance their research knowledge in mathematical modelling and simulation of complex systems. The programme is intended to increase the interaction between scientists and faculty members of academic institutes along with their students towards a long term research collaboration. Click here to apply for SPARK.

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