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Probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment for Peninsular India

by Ashish, C. Lindholm, I. A. Parvez and D. Kühn

In this paper, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is presented for Peninsular India. The PSHA has been performed using three different recurrence models: a classical seismic zonation model, a fault model, and a grid model. The development of a grid model based on a non-parameterized recurrence model using an adaptation of the Kernel-based method that has not been applied to this region before. The results obtained from the three models have been combined in a logic tree structure in order to investigate the impact of different weights of the models. Three suitable attenuation relations have been considered in terms of spectral acceleration for the stable continental crust as well as for the active crust within the Gujarat region. While Peninsular India has experienced large earthquakes, e.g., Latur and Jabalpur, it represents in general a stable continental region with little earthquake activity, as also confirmed in our hazard results. On the other hand, our study demonstrates that both the Gujarat and the Koyna regions are exposed to a high seismic hazard. The peak ground acceleration for 10 % exceedance in 50 years observed in Koyna is 0.4 g and in the Kutch region of Gujarat up to 0.3 g. With respect to spectral acceleration at 1 Hz, estimated ground motion amplitudes are higher in Gujarat than in the Koyna region due to the higher frequency of occurrence of larger earthquakes. We discuss the higher PGA levels for Koyna compared Gujarat and do not accept them uncritically.


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