Modelling for Science, for a better future - some recent outcomes
Ultra-high Resolution Global Model Climate Change Projection for India: Towards a Data Intensive Paradigm
by K. Rajendran, A. Kitoh, S. Sajani
Global warming will precariously affect agricultural production and the livelihood of farmers by unpredictably changing the abundance of rainfall and extreme events (Rajendran et al. 2013), which exhibits strong variation of rainfall. Hydropower generation and water availability are some of the other concerns that depend on rainfall variation. Thus, identification of recent climate trends and projection of future climate change are crucial for agro-economic states. As we build strong observational networks and monitor climate indicators, parallel efforts in dynamical modelling should also be practised. Since the special nature of the geographical orientation of the country with low-altitude coastlines and highly elevated mountains at the north, numerical models employed for projections should have sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve these details. An ultra-high resolution global general circulation model (GCM) at 20-km resolution jointly developed by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan, and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) is used to investigate the future projection of climate change patterns for India. Analysis of four-dimensional multivariable global dataset at ultra-high resolution of 20-km and century time scale for climate change projections and for deriving inferences is highly data intensive and requires high-performance computing with huge memory, visualisation and storage. The projections are determined through time-slice integrations of the model which has shown marked fidelity in representing the present-day climate of India in all seasons especially the mean summer monsoon rainfall over India. Projected future scenario shows coherent and significant enhancement in summer rainfall over most parts of India along with significant reduction in rainfall along the southern parts of the Western Ghats.
The Role of Microzonation in Estimating Earthquake Risk
by Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Philippe Rosset
This chapter is dedicated to understanding the role of seismic zonation and microzonation, as well as understanding seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. The merits and demerits of various approaches to estimating earthquake hazard are discussed in terms of whether it is probabilistic, deterministic, or neodeterministic. The importance of geotechnical, geomorphological, and geological databases for seismic microzonation has been highlighted along with various techniques available to characterize site conditions. A variety of tools currently in use illustrate the basic principles of microzonation mapping at different scales. The main parameters involved in earthquake loss assessments and evaluating the influence of soil conditions on these estimates are discussed using QLARM, an advanced seismic risk estimation tool, for a few case histories.
Seismotectonic implications of strike–slip earthquakes in the Darjiling–Sikkim Himalaya
by Malay Mukul, Sridevi Jade, Abdul Kutubuddin and Matin
The Darjiling–Sikkim Himalaya (DSH) is located over the Dharan–Gorubathan salient–recess pair and moderate thrust and strike–slip earthquake occur here. The hypocentres cluster not only near the location of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) or the basal decollement of the Himalayan wedge, but also well above and below it. The epicentres cluster over the mapped location of the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (LHD), suggesting that both MHT and LHD are active structures in DSH.
- A comparative evaluation of impact of domain size and parameterization scheme on simulation of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
- Estimation of seismic hazard and risks for the Himalayas and surrounding regions based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes
- The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): Response to Changed Meridional SST Profile
- Do CMIP5 simulations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall differ from those of CMIP3?
- Effect of Rotation, Magnetic Field and Initial Stresses on Propagation of Plane Waves in Transversely Isotropic Dissipative Half Space